Genius/ Quaest: Lula leads first and second shifts, but Flavio grows
Lula opens 9 points of advantage for Flávio in the stimulated scenario of Genial/Quaest Lula: 39% Flávio Bolsonaro: 30% Renan Santos: 4% Ronaldo Caiado: 4% Romeo
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2 agency rewrites / co-publications detected
Summary
Lula opens 9 points of advantage for Flávio in the stimulated scenario of Genial/Quaest Lula (PT): 39% Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 30% Renan Santos (Mission): 4% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 4% Romeo Zema (New): 2% Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza): 1% Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 1% Samara Martins (UP): 1% Clariana Baron (DC): 0% Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% White/Nulo/Will not vote: 8% Undecided: 10% Second round for President of the Republic The research simulated four confrontations in a possible second round. The search is registered in the TSE under the number BR-06591/2026. The survey heard 2004 voters between July 31 and August 3.
Furthermore, The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%. On the other hand, Flávio gained two percentage points, from 37% to 39% of the voting intentions this month. Other scenarios The research also tested a second-round simulation between Lula and the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD).
In addition, Methods of interviews, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result. The percentage of voters still undecided is 10%, while 8% claim they would vote blank, cancel the vote or not vote.
Cross-referenced from 4 sources.
Factual coreconfirmed by several independent voices
Lula opens 9 points of advantage for Flávio in the stimulated scenario of Genial/Quaest Lula (PT): 39% Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 30% Renan Santos (Mission): 4% Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 4% Romeo Zema (New): 2% Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza): 1% Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 1% Samara Martins (UP): 1% Clariana Baron (DC): 0% Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% White/Nulo/Will not vote: 8% Undecided: 10% Second round for President of the Republic The research simulated four confrontations in a possible second round.
reliability moderate2/4 sourcesThe search is registered in the TSE under the number BR-06591/2026.
reliability moderate2/4 sourcesThe survey heard 2004 voters between July 31 and August 3.
reliability moderate2/4 sourcesThe maximum margin of error is two percentage points, for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%.
reliability low1/3 sources
Reported detailssecondary facts, each attributed to its source
On the other hand, Flávio gained two percentage points, from 37% to 39% of the voting intentions this month.
according to MetrópolesOther scenarios The research also tested a second-round simulation between Lula and the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD).
according to MetrópolesMargin of error: 2 percentage points.
according to Gazeta do Povo — ÚltimasMethods of interviews, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result.
according to Gazeta do Povo — ÚltimasThe percentage of voters still undecided is 10%, while 8% claim they would vote blank, cancel the vote or not vote.
according to Folha de S.Paulo — Em Cima da Hora +1In the second round against Flavius, the most likely scenario, the undecided add up to 4%, while 13% claim that they would vote blank, cancel the vote or not vote.
according to Folha de S.Paulo — Em Cima da Hora +1
Disputedincompatible versions — to verify
No factual contradiction detected between sources.
Framing by sidesame fact, different words — loaded terms highlighted
No notable framing divergence.
Blind spotwhat one side keeps silent
The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%.
omitted byRight sidecovered byLeft sideCenterAnother 2.5% could not answer.
omitted byCentercovered byLeft sideRight side
